- På den måde bliver AAU-forskningen nu institutionaliseret som benchmark i UK. Det er jeg godt tilfreds med, da det jo er et erklæret formål for vores forskning, at den skal forbedre praksis, lyder det fra professor Bent Flyvbjerg, der er manden bag forskningen, der nu bringes i anvendelse af det engelske transportministerium.
UK-department for Transport skriver flg. om AAU-forskningen på området:
"The Estimation and Treatment of Scheme Costs has been revised in light of the Department's recent review of its published guidance on cost estimation. This review was prompted by a number of recent high-profile cases of scheme cost over-runs.
The review led to a number of important revisions to the existing guidance that should help to make it clearer to promoters how the Department expects costs to be estimated for use in appraisal and what evidence should be included in the appraisal documentation.
More specifically the revised guidance represents an improvement to the Department's guidance in the following ways:
- It consolidates into one unit all the guidance on estimating scheme costs and preparing them for use in appraisal.
- It emphasises the need for scheme promoters to factor in realistic assumptions about cost escalation.
- It provides clearer guidance to promoters on how to handle risk in appraisal (including requiring a quantified risk assessment to be provided for all major schemes).
- It provides updated guidance on adjusting costs to reflect optimism bias, drawing on the results of the research project on Optimism Bias that was commissioned by the department from Bent Flyvbjerg, whose results were published in 2004, and the latest Green Book.
- It provides a fully worked example to illustrate the guidance."
Nærmere oplysninger
- Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, Dept. of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark, Phone: +45 96358379, Fax: +45 98153788, Email: flyvbjerg@plan.aau.dk or bentflyvbjerg@stofanet.dk, Homepage: http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk